What Democratic presidential candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris needs to do to win in Pennsylvania

Events in battleground states are intensifying two months before the election, and an analyst told media  what he believes Democratic presidential contender and Vice President Kamala Harris has to do in Pennsylvania.

To increase voter turnout, millions of dollars are being spent on fundraising, hundreds of volunteers are being employed, and both candidates are touring the nation.

Pennsylvania is one state where the contenders are concentrating their efforts. After visiting Johnstown on Wednesday, Trump is scheduled to deliver a pre-recorded town hall meeting to voters in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania today. Trump has made many trips to the state this month after his near-fatal shooting at a rally in Butler on July 13.

His visit comes after Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’ Labor Day appearance in Pennsylvania.

This battleground state, which has 19 Electoral College votes, is essential for a presidential contender to win. Furthermore, according to surveys, Harris is already leading Trump in Pennsylvania, erasing the edge Trump had when he entered the race in July.

However, new surveys indicate that Harris’ advantage in the state could be shrinking.

According to the most recent surveys by Vic and Emerson College, which were conducted between August 25 and 29, Harris and Trump were deadlocked in Pennsylvania. In the crucial state, the former president was leading by two points according to a new Trafalgar Group survey.

On September 02, 2024, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris addresses union members during a campaign rally held at Northwestern High School in Detroit, Michigan. Pennsylvania may go to Harris if she… More Olson Scott/Getty Images

In the meanwhile, Harris leads by only 0.3 points in Pennsylvania according to the RealClearPolitics poll tracker, 0.1 points in Pennsylvania according to the Economist poll tracker, and 0.5 points in Pennsylvania according to pollster Nate Silver’s model.

Silver said in his Silver Bulletin newsletter that “she’ll be a bit of an underdog in November if she’s tied now in Pennsylvania, which should be one of her stronger polling periods.” He continued by saying that after the DNC, his model would have predicted Harris to lead the country by two points.

But according to Silver’s estimate, her advantage is just 1.2 points after the DNC, which he partly blames on her dismal showing in Pennsylvania, a pivotal battleground state that might be a game-changer in the election by deciding who wins the 270th Electoral College vote.

Mediaemailed the camps of Harris and Trump to request comment.

Robert Speel, an assistant professor of political science at Penn State University, told media that Harris has to make sure she doesn’t make the same errors that her predecessor Hillary Clinton did, who lost the state in 2016.

“If Harris wants to win Pennsylvania, one of her main goals is to not repeat the mistakes that Hillary Clinton’s campaign made in 2016, when they lost Pennsylvania,” he said.

Although they are home to slightly more than half of the state’s population, the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh metro regions are by far the biggest in the state. Clinton herself campaigned in 2016 in essentially only the two major metro regions, ignoring the remainder of the state. She never went to my home county of Erie, for instance. Before winning the county in 2020, Biden traveled to Erie, as did Trump, during his 2016 campaign stops in Erie and other smaller Pennsylvania communities, according to Speel.

Harris has only been to Pittsburgh as far. Trump has been to Butler, York, Johnstown, and Wilkes-Barre in the meantime.

Speel said that Harris must concentrate on balancing her positions in addition to reaching out to other regions of the state in order to win over a greater number of Pennsylvania voters.

“In light of varying opinions across the state, Harris must also, as she already attempts, balance her viewpoints on topics. For instance, fracking is crucial to the economy of the state’s southwest and north central regions, yet it worries a lot of people in Philadelphia.

“The Philadelphia region and other parts of the state probably oppose fracking,” he said.

Harris faced backlash last week during an interview with CNN after seemingly changing her mind on fracking. In 2019, she had backed a nationwide ban on the technique, but as president, she told CNN’s Dana Bash that she would not implement such a law. “No, and I made that very clear on the debate stage in 2020 that I would not ban fracking, as vice president I would not ban fracking and as president I would not ban fracking,” she said.

She reiterated her previous position, saying, “As president, I would not ban fracking and I would not go any further.” Harris is still ahead in Pennsylvania, according to poll watchers, despite recent surveys giving Trump the advantage. She is 1.2 points ahead of Trump, for instance, according to FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker, with 46.2 percent to 45 percent. Democrats are predicted by FiveThirtyEight’s election projection model to win the swing state by 0.7 points, with a probability of 46.2 percent.

Democratic political analyst and pollster Celinda Lake believes that even while Harris is ahead, she may not win in November if she is unable to win over Pennsylvanians over 65, who make up around 20% of the state’s population.

“It’s a little more conservative than most polls, but I think Pennsylvania is really tight, and other battleground states are very close to winning,” she said. “A large number of Pennsylvania voters are leaning toward Harris. It’s a somewhat more recalcitrant state,” Lake said on the 2Way program.

“Pennsylvania is the oldest of the battleground states … so the age distribution works against Harris,” he said.

Nevertheless, Speel remains upbeat over Harris’ prospects in the state.

“At the moment, it seems that the Harris campaign is gaining ground. Young voters in urban and suburban regions, especially women, are enthusiastic about her campaign, he added.

“But we still have two months before the election, with opportunities for conditions to change based on debate performances, newly exposed scandals or verbal errors.”

Only in 2016, when Trump won by a narrow margin of 0.7 percent, did Pennsylvania vote for the Republican nominee. The state had gone Democratic in seven of the previous eight presidential elections.