What impact could President Donald Trump’s “gold card” have on the US property market?

US: For a startling $5 million, President Donald Trump is considering offering rich foreigners a “gold card” that would give them a new route to citizenship and the ability to live and work permanently in the United States. Experts are divided on the potential effects of such a program, as is the case with many of the proposals that Trump has been rejecting since he returned to the White House.

Some believe that “gold cards” will have a disastrous effect on the housing market in the United States, increasing inflation and inequality. Others believe it may bring much-needed capital to the American economy, which could then be used to lower the cost of housing for Americans.

Trump promised to cut the cost of living for Americans and make homes more accessible during his 2024 presidential campaign. But as of right now, inflation is still greater than anticipated, and the affordability crisis is still making it harder for prospective homeowners to climb the housing ladder.

Even while the Trump administration is cutting federal government spending and has pledged to pass these savings on to Americans, certain of his policies—such as tariffs—have analysts worried that the cost of common items may increase once again.

Offering “gold cards” to affluent foreigners would attract fresh investment and help lower the cost of living for Americans, but it is probably going to be a difficult political sell for a president who has made “America first” a top goal.

During a joint session of Congress on March 4, Trump said that the “gold card” scheme would “allow the most successful job-creating people from all over the world to buy a path to U.S. citizenship.”

Upon arrival, Trump said on February 25 that these new citizens will be “spending a lot of money and paying a lot of taxes and employing a lot of people” in the nation.

In around two weeks, Trump’s “gold cards” may be made accessible, according to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. Meanwhile, Trump said that Congress would not have to approve the scheme.

Whoever can afford their $5 million price tag should be the first priority.

Although he did not provide many specifics, Lutnick said that candidates would need to pass a screening process and that the Trump administration would “make sure they’re wonderful, world-class, global citizens.”

Trump has implied that Russian billionaires, who have been rejected by the West since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, would qualify as candidates.

“Hey, there are some very kind Russian oligarchs I know. It is feasible. They are not as rich as they once were. Trump told reporters, “I believe they could afford—I believe they could afford $5 million.”

A UN Global Compact member’s director of UN representation, Anoussa Salim, told Newsweek that the program might be a security risk to the United States because it might draw “individuals with questionable motives or those seeking to exploit the system for personal gain rather than contributing positively to the U.S. economy or society.”

She said that in the absence of rigorous screening processes, the United States “could open its doors to foreign individuals or entities threatening American security.” Salim is especially concerned about Russian billionaires, who often have connections to the Kremlin.

What Would ‘Gold Cards’ Do to the Present Golden Visa Program in the United States?

The United States already has a golden visa program called EB-5, which was first implemented in the early 1990s.

This entails “an extended application process that takes years and—depending on the country an applicant is from—can include sitting on a waiting list for over ten years,” Dr. Kristin Surak, an associate professor of political sociology at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), told Newsweek.

The EB-5 program, according to Lutnick, is “sort of ridiculous” and “full of nonsense, make-believe and fraud,” and it will be replaced by “the Trump Gold Card, which is really a Green Card Gold.”

Surak, who wrote The Golden Passport: Global Mobility for Millionaires, a book about golden visa programs, claims that Trump’s “gold card” proposal is “still quite thin in details, but he did make clear that he wants to see the approval process made much swifter and reduce the bureaucracy involved.”

Trump’s plan may potentially raise the annual maximum on approvals, which is now set at 10,000 people under the EB-5 program.

“This will be good news for those who have been waiting for an EB-5 green card for years. The price rise from around $1 million to $5 million, however, is probably not going to make them happy,” Surak added, characterizing Trump’s proposal for a “gold card” as “simply old wine in more expensive bottles.”

However, Trump’s proposal has the support of other experts. According to Brandon Daniels, CEO of Exiger, a supply chain management technology platform driven by artificial intelligence (AI), Trump’s “gold card” is “a true game-changer for U.S. investment,” which would greatly streamline the EB-5 procedure, as he told Newsweek.

“This approach is designed to attract wealthy investors who not only bring massive capital, but also stimulate job creation and economic growth,” he said. Naturally, some worry that individuals are effectively ‘purchasing’ residence and that insufficient vetting may pose security threats. But when it comes to investment migration, many nations with such programs go above and beyond the most stringent bank KYC requirements, with ongoing, real-time surveillance that reduces corruption and guarantees moral adherence.

What Has Taken Place in Nations That Have Golden Visas in Place Already?

The idea of golden visas is not new at all. Although they only account for a minor portion of migration to these countries, more than 60 countries already have similar programs in place.

“In most cases, the application and approval numbers are quite small, so they’re not much of a game-changer,” Surak said. Even in the nations where golden visas are most often granted, such as Malaysia, Greece, and the United Arab Emirates, the number of applications is “just in the high thousands each year.”

Daniels believes that in nations that have adopted golden visa systems, even if the benefits may be modest, they have had a big impact.

“In Europe, programs like Malta’s have attracted hundreds of millions of euros and were able to redirect funds during the pandemic to support wage subsidies and public services—protecting over 60,000 jobs,” he said.

Daniels went on: “Billions of dollars have been invested in Portugal as a result of the Golden Visa, which has fueled sustainable agriculture and urban renewal in neglected areas. St. Kitts has one of the lowest debt-to-GDP ratios in the Caribbean, and citizenship by investment schemes may contribute more than 30% of an island nation’s GDP to renewable energy and vital infrastructure projects.

He said that these instances “prove that such programs drive significant, positive economic and social transformation.”

Salim cautioned, however, that while golden visa schemes may have helped nations like Portugal and Spain, they have also been very detrimental in Greece and Cyprus.

“In some countries, golden visas have facilitated the rejuvenation of previously economically stagnant areas,” Salim said. Foreign investment has aided in the restoration of abandoned homes in Portugal, particularly in rural or underdeveloped areas, which has boosted local economies and given small companies options. In a similar vein, Spanish undeveloped communities have benefited from international investment focused on regions with significant development potential.

However, the much-needed investment that Greece’s golden visa program brought about turned out to be something of a poisoned chalice, prompting worries about the widening gap between locals and affluent foreigners.

“Perceptions that the scheme helps the privileged have been influenced by the flood of wealthy consumers. “At the same time, the average Greek faces economic hardship and high unemployment,” Salim said.

To avoid similar negative consequences, the U.S. “would need to implement stringent regulations, such as clear limits on foreign investment in real estate, enhanced vetting processes to prevent money laundering and other illegal activities, and safeguards to ensure that the program’s benefits are shared with the local population,” Salim said. “The key would be to strike a balance that encourages investment while protecting the interests of the American people.”

What Effect Might ‘Gold Cards’ Have on the Housing Market in the United States?

Daniels believes that golden visa transactions would have little effect on the U.S. housing market since they make up such a tiny portion of total activity in the European nations that have put such programs into place.

“In the vast U.S. housing market, this kind of influx would represent a niche segment of high-net-worth buyers, with minimal overall impact,” he said. “Given that similar programs contribute less than 1 percent of property transactions in Europe, this initiative won’t drive a housing bubble.”

However, Daniels believes that “gold cards” might contribute to long-term affordability in the U.S. housing market “when paired with stringent vetting and targeted policies that channel speculative capital into infrastructure, affordable housing, and innovation.”

The answer, according to Daniels, is “using the inflow of funds to support community-beneficial projects, rather than fueling excessive market speculation.”

Surak concurs that the number of individuals who would be interested in Trump’s “gold cards” would be little in comparison to the annual number of new permanent residents in the United States.

“Overall, the numbers are likely to remain very small in what is, in the U.S., an enormous immigration system,” she said. Every year, almost a million individuals settle down as permanent residents. The EB-5 program only accounts for 1% of that amount at the moment.

Salim, however, is much more circumspect, pointing to the effects of golden visa policies in some nations, where they increased housing costs and rendered real estate expensive for citizens.

“If implemented in the U.S., a gold visa could exacerbate housing affordability issues in major cities like New York, Los Angeles, and Miami,” she said. “International ‘golden visa’ programs, such as those implemented in European countries like Portugal, Spain, and the U.K., have already demonstrated these effects.”

“As foreign investors often seek luxury properties or properties in highly sought-after areas,” Salim cautioned, these schemes have caused real estate values in these nations to surge, especially in big cities and excellent neighborhoods.

She added, “While these investments benefit developers and property owners, they can have devastating consequences for residents who face higher living costs and a shrinking supply of affordable housing options.”

Cities in the United States where gentrification has been an issue in recent years should be especially concerned about this issue. “Many cities, particularly in states with large urban centers like California, New York, and Texas, are experiencing rapid gentrification,” Salim said.

“In traditionally lower-income neighborhoods, wealthier people and developers purchase real estate, uprooting long-term inhabitants and driving up rents. “This trend could be made worse by implementing a program that promotes foreign investment in real estate, which would force vulnerable communities to move from affordable neighborhoods to areas with fewer resources and opportunities,” she said.

Salim believes that there would be many obstacles to overcome in order to launch a “gold card” scheme in the United States, “especially considering the current political climate shaped by rhetoric like Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ agenda,” she added.

Trump’s strict immigration policies might make it “difficult” to introduce and properly execute his gold card proposal, Salim continued.