US: Kamala Harris sees significant boost in 2024 election prospects

US: According to a substantial new estimate, Kamala Harris‘s chances of winning the 2024 election have improved significantly.

According to The Economist’s most recent election estimate, Harris now has a 3 in 5 probability of defeating Donald Trump in November’s Electoral College. Since entering the Democratic presidential race, this is the vice president’s best position. Additionally, according to the estimate, Trump is only projected to get 257 Electoral College votes, while Harris is predicted to receive 281 votes.

From an even split with Trump on September 8, when both had a 50-50 chance of winning, Harris’ chances have increased significantly over the last three weeks by 10%. The Democrat was predicted to receive 270 Electoral College votes—just enough to win—while the Republican was predicted to receive 268 votes.

In addition, since September 8, Harris’s odds of winning the election have risen by 6%, from 52% to 58%, while Trump’s chances have decreased by 7%, from 48% to 41%.

According to the estimate, Trump is expected to win Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona, while the vice president is expected to win four swing states: Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

“Kamala Harris is lying about her views because she is desperate. When questioned about the election prediction, Trump’s spokesman Steven Cheung told Newsweek, “She knows her policies have led to skyrocketing inflation, an out-of-control border, and rampant crime that threatens every community.” Which “positions” Cheung was referring to is unclear.

He said, “Every word that comes out of Kamala’s mouth is a lie, except when she is spewing violent and hateful rhetoric that led to multiple assassination attempts against President Trump.” Newsweek sent an email requesting feedback from the Harris campaign.

The vice president has continued to rise in the polls this week. According to the most current Outward Intelligence survey, which was completed between September 22 and September 26, Harris led 1,735 potential voters nationwide by 6 points.

Another survey by the pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson and veteran Republican digital strategist Patrick Ruffini, cofounders of Echelon Insights, revealed that Harris leads Trump by 7 points in a head-to-head comparison, with 52% of respondents to 45%. From September 23 to September 25, 1,005 likely voters were questioned for the poll.

Harris also led by seven points according to a September 24 Clarity Campaign Labs survey.

But when third-party candidates were taken into account, Trump led by one point in many surveys released in the last week, including one from Quinnipiac University, while the two nominees were deadlocked when competing head-to-head. When third-party candidates were taken into account, a CNN/SSRS survey taken between September 19 and September 22 likewise revealed a close race between Trump and Harris among registered voters.

Still, Harris leads all polling aggregators despite surveys that fluctuate. Using FiveThirtyEight’s polling tracker, for instance, the vice president leads Trump by 2.8 points, with 48.6 percent to 45.7 percent.

With 283 electoral votes to the Republican’s 255, Harris has a 57 percent probability of winning the election, according to the pollster’s prediction.

With 289 Electoral College votes to Trump’s 248, Harris has a 60% probability of winning the race for the White House.

In the meanwhile, Harris leads by three points according to pollster Nate Silver’s tracking system. His forecasts for the Electoral College, however, did not bode well for the Democrat.

According to Silver’s email, his model indicates that there is a tie for the Electoral College.

“As of this Thursday, our prediction is that Kamala Harris will win the popular vote 3:1, but the Electoral College is still essentially tied. This is due to the fact that the model predicts that Harris has a 20% probability of winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College, compared to Donald Trump’s 0.3% likelihood of experiencing the same outcome,” Silver noted.

Silver’s model had projected that Trump would win the Electoral College by more than 60% as early as September.

The outcome of the seven very tight swing states will ultimately determine the outcome of the election. Trump is expected to win by only one point in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, according to FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver, and Race to the White House projections, while Harris is expected to win between one and three points in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada.

In the seven swing states, however, the margins are so thin that the outcome is still up for grabs.

“Slim margins in the swing states make this cycle’s presidential race the closest in decades—the outcome could be closer than in any election in nearly 150 years,” the website of FiveThirtyEight said.