US Election: Women voters prefer Kamala Harris over Donald Trump

US Election: According to a media study, there is a notable gender gap in the latter stages of the race, with women voters strongly favoring Kamala Harris over Donald Trump and males strongly favoring Trump.

According to Newsweek’s analysis of national surveys conducted since October 28 that break down vote intention by gender, women typically support Harris by 8 points, while men support Trump by 10 points. That is equivalent to a 9-point average gender difference.

Polls indicate that, on average, Harris has the support of 43% of male voters and 52% of female voters, according to Newsweek’s research. Meanwhile, compared to 44% of female voters, 53% of male voters support Trump.

The gender gap has existed for a long time. Since the 1980s, males have been more inclined to favor the Republicans and women to support the Democrats, and this partisan disparity has only widened over time. However, given how tight the campaign is now, the gap might have a big impact on the outcome of this year’s election.

Polls are closer than ever, with only a few days till the election. According to FiveThirtyEight’s tracker, Kamala Harris is ahead by one point, while all swing states are within two points.

The election is too close to call, according to the Cook Political Report’s final forecasts, which were made public on Friday.

According to Carrie Baker, a professor of women, gender, and sexuality at Smith College in Massachusetts, “gender will be a critical factor in determining the outcome whatever way this election goes,” she told Newsweek.

Male voters were 22 points more inclined than female voters to favor the former president, according to a recent J.L. Partners survey conducted between October 26 and 29. Women broke for Harris by 14 points in the meanwhile. Consequently, the average gender disparity is 18 points.

Trump is well ahead of Harris among males, according to other surveys. For instance, according to a Quantus Insights survey taken between October 27 and 30, Trump was 13 points ahead of Harris among males, while Harris was ahead of him by 11 points among women. This translates to a gender disparity of 12 points on average.

But according to certain surveys, the gender disparity is far lower. According to an October 25–29 AtlasIntel survey, Trump and Harris deadlocked for 49 percent of women, but men only shifted to his side by 4 points. Men broke for Trump by only 5 points, while women broke for Harris by just 3 points, according to a SoCal Strategies survey taken between October 30 and October 31.

Surveys from this year’s election have shown that the gender difference may be especially significant among young voters, even though the polls do not yet reveal the full extent of the gender divide.

Trump leads Harris by 21 points (58 to 37 percent) among young males, according to an average of three recent New York Times/Siena College surveys taken between September and October. Harris leads among young women by 39 points (67 to 28 percent). A September Harvard Kennedy School survey of 18- to 29-year-olds also revealed a 10-point gender disparity, with young males supporting Trump at 38 percent and young women at 28 percent, while Harris’ support was 49 percent among men and 59 percent among women.

Furthermore, according to an Alliance for Black Equality study done from October 15–19, the largest percentage of Black voters polled, 35 percent, are Gen Z Black males who favor Trump. Nearly 1,500 people participated in the survey, which had a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent.

“This year, the gender disparity in voting—which first appeared in 1980 and has been widening over time—is probably going to be worse than it has ever been, particularly among young people. By focusing their rhetoric on hypermasculinity and grievance, MAGA Republicans have specifically targeted young males. Baker told Newsweek.

The employment of populist language by the right is essential to comprehending the factors behind the gender gap, according to Elisabeth Clemens, a professor of sociology at the University of Chicago.

Scholars from Hannah Arendt to Arlie Hochschild have acknowledged that populism appeals to those who are facing or expecting status loss, whether it be in the form of losing a job or a place in the community, or the deterioration of racial or gender privilege. “The Democrats emphasize the creation of well-paying manufacturing jobs and home ownership, while the Trump campaign promises the restoration of male privilege and traditional family roles,” she told Newsweek.

According to a 2020 Pew Research Center study, 23% of males, including 33% of Trump supporters, felt that women’s progress had come at their price.

Young women are becoming more financially independent than they were in the 1980s, with many of them living alone and earning more than young men. According to Pew, 39 percent of males agree that it is harder for men than women to get well-paying employment these days. Young Republican men are more likely to hold this opinion.

Additionally, according to Blueprint, Trump has taken advantage of these men’s tendency to be gloomy and disillusioned with America and its political system by portraying himself as the anti-establishment figure who is being mistreated by the political class in Washington.

This has never been more clear in this election than when Trump used podcasts, an unconventional media format, to appeal to young people, particularly men. The former president has made appearances on Theo Von’s podcast, Lex Fridman’s program, The Shawn Ryan program, and The Joe Rogan Experience. Each of the four podcasts attracts millions of listeners, most of whom are young men. Harris, meanwhile, refused to participate in the Joe Rogan Experience.

Jackson Katz, a cofounder of the Young Men’s Research Initiative, felt that her campaign’s decision was disappointing.

“I’ve been hoping that she was going to go on the Joe Rogan Experience, because I think that would have been a very powerful statement to young men,” he said to a media report.

However, Harris’ campaign still has optimism. The Democrats are leading by two points, according to early vote figures. However, given the data only shows whether people are registered with a party and not who they are voting for, it is unclear what this signifies for the election. However, the data indicates that women are driving the Democratic Party’s advantage as they turn out to vote for Harris, with 44% of all early voters identifying as female and 43% as male. Katz said that Harris may win if this pattern continues.

“I think part of the challenge in the Trump campaign has been to try to motivate more young men to come out than normally do come out, because they know they’re going to lose really badly among women,” he said.

He went on to say that if young men “see through” Trump, they may even tip the race in Harris’ favor.

“If enough young men can see through the Trump campaign’s efforts to exploit their vulnerability to cartoonish masculinity appeals, it could make the difference,” he said.