US: Data shows, Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris will win in key states

US: According to research, Americans residing overseas may have an impact on whether former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris win important states.

Considering how close the presidential race in November seems to be, states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Georgia will be even more important than normal.

Both candidates have gone above and beyond to campaign in these states; according to campaign tracking group AdImpact Politics, Trump spent far more on advertisements in Pennsylvania ($132.1 million) than he did nationwide ($31.2 million) between March 5 and September 7.

However, based on Newsweek’s study of data from the Electoral Assistance Commission’s 2020 Election Administration and Voting Surveys, the states might be influenced by Americans who are not even citizens.

In the 2020 presidential contest, for instance, Joe Biden won Georgia by a mere 11,779 votes, a far smaller margin than the 18,475 votes from outside the state that were tallied.

Similarly, in Arizona, where 18,435 ballots from outside the state were tallied, Biden won the state by only 10,457 votes. And 13,530 ballots from outside the country were tallied, yet the president won Wisconsin by a margin of 20,682 votes.

In contrast, when 26,386 votes from outside the country were tallied, Trump won North Carolina by 74,483 votes.

Republicans Overseas, an organization that advocates for Republican Party supporters living abroad, said that the 2000 Florida election, which George W. Bush won by a slim margin, is another instance of how “overseas Americans can impact elections”.

Even though Democratic Vice President Al Gore had 202 more Florida votes than Republican Front-runner Jeb Bush on election day, Bush won the presidency with 537 more Florida votes than Gore when absentee ballots from outside the country were tabulated.

Following a six-month investigation by the New York Times that revealed “questionable votes” had been cast, there was significant debate over the legitimacy of the method used to tally those votes.

The U.S. Supreme Court ultimately stopped the proceedings when Gore’s campaign asked for a recount of the ballots, citing insufficient time to complete a fresh recount and fulfill the certification date.

Implemented in 1986, the Uniformed and Overseas people Absentee Voting Act (UOCAVA) mandates that states let certain people to register and cast absentee ballots in federal elections.

Professor of political science and international affairs at the University of Mary Washington in Virginia, Dr. Stephen J. Farnsworth, said that the data demonstrates the significance of “every vote counts.”

“When presidential elections come down to several thousand votes in a handful of key swing states, every vote really does count,” he said to Newsweek. “While Americans abroad are not a huge voting bloc, these narrow-margin elections of recent years mean that they could be a decisive voting group in a few closely contested states.”

Farnsworth went on to say that Trump’s “isolationist perspective” will turn off people in other countries.

“Trump’s foreign policy vision may play well in some parts of the American Midwest, it will not go over well with a lot of Americans who are living, working and studying internationally,” he said.

“With Trump as the Republican candidate, Democratic activists are likely to see much more pro-Democratic voting among Americans Abroad than in past elections.”

Votes cast by troops stationed overseas are also included in UOCAVA ballots; traditionally, the military has favored the Republican Party. According to AP VoteCast, almost 60% of veterans of the armed forces said they voted for Trump in 2020.

In contrast to its Republican equivalent, Democrats Abroad serves as a state party within the Democratic National Committee and is the official organization of the Democratic Party for individuals residing abroad of the United States.

According to Democrats overseas spokesperson Sharon Manitta, “there’s this misconception Americans abroad are all millionaires…when in fact we want to make sure our phone bill is paid,” Newsweek said.

“People live around the world for different reasons—you have people who married somebody, long-term work, you also get people on short-term business contracts—maybe three to five years and then of course there’s all the permutations of various students, who may be here for a term or three to four years.”

She continued: “When we say every vote counts, it really counts this time.”
GOP Overseas spokesman Kym Kettler stated: “Overseas Americans can absolutely impact election results, usually in hotly contested, close races.” Republicans Overseas is a nonprofit that advocates for the interests of Americans living abroad who support the Republican Party.

She said to Newsweek: “In 2000, George W. Bush won Florida and the US president thanks to votes from Republicans living abroad.

“Ultimately, we believe overseas Americans—like stateside Americans—vote for pocketbook issues that impact their daily lives,” Kettler said. Republicans Overseas calls on Americans living abroad to exercise their right to vote and to return their ballots as soon as possible. This is especially true if they are registered in one of the nearly two dozen states and territories that require ballot return via mail.