Trump’s Threats Create Both Opportunity and Risk for Chicago’s Unpopular Mayor

Trump threats Chicago mayor: Brandon Johnson, the unpopular mayor of a city that does not like to be pushed about, may have a new lease on life in politics after President Donald Trump threatened to deploy National Guard soldiers and immigration officials to Chicago.

Perhaps only a few days away, a federal invasion of Chicago has allowed Johnson to adopt a manner similar to that of Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom of California. Since he became a vocal opponent of the Republican president and gave his struggling party a ray of hope, Newsom’s reputation has grown.

Johnson, whose support ratings have sometimes dropped below 10%, has taken advantage of the opportunity to criticize Trump at every opportunity, denouncing the president’s portrayal of the city as a criminal “hellhole.” In Chicago, it’s a job that may work nicely.
“Every Chicagoan has a hint of gangster in them. Local Democratic strategist Delmarie Cobb said, “No Chicagoan will ever permit this president to enter and intimidate them.”

But there are political repercussions for opposing Trump’s alleged anti-crime campaign.

Some political observers caution that Johnson and other Democrats need to do more to persuade apprehensive voters that a federal intrusion would be unnecessary political theater, given the president’s pledge to make crime a major issue in the 2026 midterm elections. Furthermore, it won’t be sufficient to only highlight positive trends in crime data.

According to political analyst Paul Lisnek, “those who are scared to walk their dog down a neighborhood street at ten at night don’t care what the statistics say.”

Similar to his historic deployment in Washington, D.C., this month, Trump has been threatening for months to send National Guard soldiers and immigration officers to Chicago to fight what he says is an out-of-control crime issue.

Trump said last week, “We’re going in,” but he did not say when. Trump’s remarks followed the Labor Day weekend shooting spree in Chicago, which left 54 people dead, including at least seven people killed.

Johnson and his supporters have defended the mayor’s record in spite of these headlines, claiming that violent crime, including killings, has decreased under his leadership. They argue that an infusion of illicit firearms from outside the city is causing problems.

The crime situation in Chicago is shown in conflicting statistics. According to FBI statistics, the murder rate last year was far lower than in Detroit, Baltimore, and a number of other cities, but it was higher than in the majority of other major U.S. cities.

For a number of years, the general crime rate has been declining. The first half of 2025 had a 32% decrease in killings when compared to the same time in 2024, and there were the fewest gunshots recorded in at least 15 years.

Earlier this year, Johnson’s popularity rating was below 10% in some surveys, but since he started battling with Trump, analysts have seen a little increase in Johnson’s stock.

“No federal troops!” Johnson said in front of a raucous audience at a rally in downtown Chicago on Labor Day.

“It makes perfect sense for him to be standing up to Trump on this,” said Christopher Berry, a political scientist at the University of Chicago. “The only person less popular in Chicago than him is Donald Trump.”

Lori Lightfoot, who was so unpopular that she failed to make it to a runoff election in her attempt to win a second term, was succeeded by Johnson, a 47-year-old former county commissioner who was elected mayor in 2023.

However, Johnson has had difficulty establishing himself as the city’s leader. The whole school board quit last year. His proposal to increase property taxes to make up for budget shortfalls was overwhelmingly rejected by the city council. His proposal to tax real estate transactions in order to combat homelessness was similarly rejected by voters.

Unlike Emanuel, a centrist who lasted two terms but often fought with the Black community and was seen as supporting economic interests, Lightfoot and Johnson campaigned on leftist platforms.

“It’s hard to govern Chicago, especially in these really tough times,” political expert Laura Washington said.
“Its diversity is a strength, but it means a mayor must manage a slew of different constituencies, ethnicities and political perspectives,” she said.

Two other potential Democratic presidential contenders for 2028 are doing their own math while the political drama in Chicago plays out.

J.B. Pritzker, the governor of Illinois, has joined Johnson in opposing Trump on a national level.

While calling Trump’s campaign “performative,” former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel asserts that Democrats must develop their own crime-reduction plan, which calls for additional police personnel. Instead of deploying the Guard, he argued, Johnson should push for additional federal funding for police enforcement.

Last week, Emanuel said in the “Politics War Room” podcast, “Be clear you have an agenda on how you can win this battle on crime.”

According to Reuters/Ipsos research, Americans are more likely to trust the Republican Party to combat crime than the Democratic Party. According to an August study, 38% of participants said Republicans handled crime and corruption better than Democrats, while 22% disagreed.

Johnson is being publicly criticized by a Chicago Democrat for failing to recognize the issue of crime. Because Chicago people are afraid of violence, Alderman Raymond Lopez has urged that the city should welcome federal assistance, such as Guard soldiers and an increased FBI presence.

“Sadly, Illinois Democratic leadership at every level of government believes we have decreased crime ‘enough’ and additional federal help isn’t needed,” Lopez wrote on X on Thursday, after the Labor Day weekend shootings.