Andrew Cuomo likely to win Democratic primary race for New York City mayor

According to recent polls, Andrew Cuomo is the first pick of about 40% of potential voters, making him the obvious front-runner in the Democratic primary for mayor of New York City.

The impressive early performance indicates that a significant percentage of the Democratic voters is responding favorably to Cuomo’s message and that his political base is still strong in spite of previous problems. His route to the nomination may be quicker and easier than anticipated if these figures hold true, which would change the course of the campaign and put pressure on opponents to increase their support or face elimination.

Just four years after he resigned as governor in 2021 under fear of impeachment due to sexual misconduct accusations, which he has always denied, Cuomo’s primary victory would be a stunning political return.

Cuomo is the top pick for 37% of prospective Democratic primary voters, including those who aren’t sure yet but are leaning toward a candidate, according to a recent Marist Poll poll of 3,383 likely Democratic primary voters, which was conducted between May 1 and May 8.

Cuomo’s overwhelming advantage puts him in a good position ahead of what is anticipated to be a hotly fought campaign, with Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani, his closest opponent, behind at 18 percent.

Mamdani is followed by State Senator Zellnor Myrie (3 percent), former Manhattan borough president Scott Stringer (4 percent), NYC Comptroller Brad Lander (8 percent), and NYC Council Speaker Adrienne Adams (9 percent).

Former Democratic National Convention Vice Chair Michael Blake polls at less than 1 percent, state Senator Jessica Ramos receives 2 percent, and Whitney Tilson receives 1 percent.

Notably, however, 17% of probable Democratic primary voters are still unsure, which allows for last-minute changes in momentum.

However, the survey indicates that Cuomo’s appeal is vast since his support is both broad and geographically robust. He has 48 percent in Queens and Staten Island and does best in the Bronx, where he receives 50 percent. In Brooklyn, he and Mamdani are knotted at 25 percent apiece, while he leads in Manhattan at 32 percent.

Additionally, Cuomo is gaining support from important Democratic groups, especially communities of color and older voters, which will give him a significant edge in the mayoral race in New York City. Nearly half of probable Democratic voters 45 and older support Cuomo, according to the survey. This is a significant advantage since older voters often show up in much greater numbers than younger ones.

With 38 percent of Democrats under 45, Mamdani leads among younger voters, while Cuomo just has 18 percent. The left wing of the party also strongly supports him, with over half of voters identifying as “very liberal.” In contrast, Cuomo is the most popular among Democrats who identify as conservative, moderate, or liberal.

The race is also being shaped by racial and ethnic divisions. Fifty percent of Black voters said they would vote for Cuomo, considerably more than any other contender, including Adams, who has the support of about one in seven Black Democrats. With 41 percent of the vote, more than twice as many as Mamdani’s 20 percent, Cuomo is also ahead among Latino voters.

Cuomo leads Jewish voters with 26 percent, followed by Lander with 17 percent, Mamdani with 14 percent, and Adams with 10 percent.

Additionally, Cuomo starts the first round with 44 percent of the vote, more than double Mamdani’s 22 percent, according to ranked-choice voting forecasts. Adams and Lander are next with 11 and 10 percent, respectively. With 53 percent of probable Democratic voters (not including undecided votes) at the conclusion of the fifth round, Cuomo surpasses the 50 percent barrier, while Mamdani finishes with 29 percent and Lander with 18 percent.

In a Data for Progress poll of 854 potential Democratic primary voters conducted from March 17–24, Cuomo also led in ranked choice voting forecasts.

Cuomo had 39 percent of the vote in the first round of the ranked-choice simulation in that survey, followed by incumbent Mayor Eric Adams at 7 percent, Mamdani at 15 percent, and Lander at 8 percent. Adams, the speaker of the city council, won 5% of the vote, while every other contender obtained less than that percentage. The margin of error for the survey was +3 percentage points.

However, the race’s dynamics might still change with three months to go until the primary election. Andrew Yang finished fourth with 12 percent of the vote, despite leading public polls by double digits at this time in 2021.

At the moment, Cuomo has an 89 percent chance of winning the Democratic primary, according to online bookmaker Polymarket. Mamdani comes next with a 7% chance. The probabilities for each other candidate are less than 1 percent.

Adams, the current mayor, is running for reelection on an independent ballot after withdrawing from the Democratic primary.

Curtis Sliwa, the creator of Guardian Angels, is the Republican party’s candidate, while Jim Walden, an attorney, is running an independent candidacy.

According to Marist pollster Lee Miringoff, Cuomo is now headed toward success. It will take someone to bring him down. The primary’s early voting period is scheduled for June 14–22.