Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump: Who is winning the presidential election?

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump:  With just ten days remaining before the 2024 presidential election, polling indicates that the race is too close to call. While some models predict Donald Trump will win a second term in the White House, others point to Democratic nominee Kamala Harris as the winner.

With 48 percent of the vote compared to 46.6 percent, Harris leads Trump by 1.4 points in the popular vote, according to the most current analysis of recent surveys released on Friday by the election website FiveThirtyEight. Trump is the clear favorite, however, with a 53 percent likelihood of winning, according to FiveThirtyEight. A candidate may win the popular vote yet lose the election overall due to the Electoral College system, as was the case with Hillary Clinton in 2016.

On the other hand, Trump has 48.3 percent of the vote compared to Harris’ 47.7 percent, according to the most current analysis of polls conducted over the last several weeks by data aggregation website RealClearPolling, which was also made public on Friday.

RealClearPolling showed Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden ahead by 5.2 and 4.8 percent, respectively, at the same point in the 2016 and 2020 election cycles.

Fortunately for Harris, a study by 338Canada on October 22 that was based on “opinion polls, electoral history and demographic data” ranked the incumbent vice president as the front-runner. According to their forecast, Trump would get 252 electoral college votes on average, while the Democratic candidate would receive 286.

TIPP Insights polled 1,357 likely voters nationwide between October 22 and 24. The pull gave Harris a 2-point edge with 49 percent of the vote compared to Trump’s 47 percent. The margin of error for this poll was 2.7 points.

Between October 19 and 24, Activote polled 1,000 potential voters and discovered that Trump and Harris had a 50 percent vote apiece. The margin of error for the survey was 3.1 percent.

Including third-party candidates Chase Oliver and Jill Stein, Trump led by one point with 47 percent of the vote, compared to 46 percent for Harris and 2 percent for Stein, according to a Siena College/New York Times survey of 2,516 potential voters conducted between October 20 and 23. The survey showed that Trump and Harris were tied at 48 percent apiece after the third-party candidates were eliminated. There was a 2.2 percentage point margin of error.

Outside of normal business hours on Friday, Newsweek sent an email requesting reaction from the presidential campaigns of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

Regardless of the total vote share, many crucial battleground states are expected to determine the 2024 presidential election, with Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada being of special significance.

Pennsylvania

Trump has a two-point edge in Pennsylvania, with 51 percent of the vote compared to 49 percent, according to an Emerson College for Real Clear Pennsylvania survey of 860 potential voters. The margin of error for the survey was 3.3 points.

In a poll of 1,586 potential voters conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategist for the British newspaper the Daily Telegraph, Harris had 48 percent of the vote, one point more than Trump’s 47 percent.

According to a Bloomberg poll conducted by Morning Consult among 812 potential Pennsylvania voters from October 16–20, Harris has a two-point advantage with 50% of the vote compared to 48% for Trump. The margin of error for the poll was three points.

Wisconsin

According to a RealClearWorld poll conducted by Emerson College among 800 Wisconsin potential voters, Trump has a 1-point advantage with 50% of the vote compared to 49% for Harris. The poll has a margin of error of 3.4 points and was conducted between October 21 and 22.

According to a study conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies for the Daily Telegraph among 557 potential voters in the state between October 20 and 22, Harris had a 2-point advantage with 49 percent of the vote compared to 47 percent.

Michigan

Quinnipiac University questioned 1,316 likely voters in Michigan between October 17 and 21. The study gave Harris 50% of the vote, compared to 46% for Trump, with a four-point margin overall. The margin of error for the poll was 2.9 points.

Bloomberg Morning Consult conducted a survey of 705 potential Michigan voters between October 16 and October 20. According to the survey, Harris had a 4-point advantage over Trump in a head-to-head contest, with 50 percent of the vote compared to 46 percent for the Republican. There was a 4-point margin of error on the poll.

North Carolina

According to an Emerson College survey of 950 likely voters in North Carolina conducted for RealClearWorld, Trump is ahead of Harris by two points, with 50 percent of the vote to her 48 percent. The poll has a 3.1-point margin of error and was conducted between October 20 and 22.

A Marist College survey of 1,226 potential voters, taken from October 17–22, similarly gave the former president a two-point edge. According to this poll, Trump received 50% of the vote, while Harris received 48%. There was a 3.6-point margin of error.

Georgia

Trump and Harris shared 49 percent of the vote in Georgia, according to a Marist College poll of 1,193 potential voters. It has a margin of error of 3.9 points and was conducted between October 17 and October 22.

855 likely Georgia voters were surveyed by Morning Consult for Bloomberg between October 16 and 20. With a 3-point margin of error, it gave Trump a 2-point edge with 50 percent of the vote compared to 48 percent for Harris in a straight-up race.

Arizona

According to a Marist College survey of 1,193 potential voters in Arizona conducted between October 17 and 22, Trump has 50% of the vote compared to 49% for Harris. The margin of error for the poll was 3.7 points.

Trump had a 3-point edge, with 50 percent of the vote compared to 47 percent for Harris, according to a separate Insider Advantage survey of 800 potential voters. The poll has a 3-point margin of error and was conducted on October 19 and 20.

Nevada

Over the course of October 19–20, Insider Advantage also polled 800 Nevadans who were likely to vote. According to the survey, which had a 3.52-point margin of error, Harris and Trump were deadlocked at 48 percent apiece.

In a straight-up contest, Harris and Trump were both at 48 percent, according to a Bloomberg Morning Consult survey. However, in the absence of third-party candidates, the Democrat had a 1-point advantage, with 49 percent over 48 percent. There was a 5-point margin of error in the poll of 420 probable voters.

Almost 20,000 more Republicans than Democrats have registered to vote in Nevada as of October 23. One local political analyst called this scenario “unheard of at this point in any other presidential cycle.”