Early Voting in Nevada: A warning sign for Kamala Harris

Nevada: Republicans have a surprising advantage during the first three days of early and postal voting in Nevada, which is a worrying sign for Kamala Harris.

Republicans have surpassed Democrats in Mail, EASE, and early voting, according to data released by the Nevada Secretary of State at 10 p.m. Monday. Registered GOP voters cast 96,858 ballots, while registered Democrats cast 88,983; this gives the Republican Party an 8,000-vote statewide lead, or 3 percent. Voters who are not registered with either of the two major parties have cast an extra 59,515 ballots.

Throughout its history, Nevada has been a crucial battleground state in presidential elections. Even though it has supported Democratic candidates since 2008, the victories have often been close (Clark won in 2016 by 27,202 votes, and Biden won in 2020 by 33,596 votes).

In his daily early voting blog, Nevada political analyst and writer Jon Ralston, publisher of The Nevada Independent, noted that Republicans had not had a lead in Nevada’s early voting at this point in a presidential contest since 2008. Subsequently, the “Reid Machine”—the group of people who backed Democratic Senator Harry Reid—helped ensure Democratic supremacy.

Republicans are now leading in in-person early voting (27.8 percent Democrats and 51.9 percent Republicans), but Democrats lead in postal voting (42.5 percent Democrats and 30.2 percent Republicans).

According to Ralston, the first results “could signal serious danger for the Dems and for Kamala Harris here.” The Democrats’ dependence on a high turnout in Clark County, Nevada’s biggest and most Democratic-leaning county, was “the Clark firewall has all but collapsed,” he said.

For Harris and the Democratic Party, Clark County is vital since it is home to more than 1.4 million registered voters, or about 70% of the state’s voters.

However, the preliminary results are raising further worries for Democrats since Republicans are also making progress there. In Clark, 66,560 Democrats and 62,108 Republicans had cast early ballots as of Monday—a mere 4,000-vote difference. Other voters have cast an additional 42,621 votes.

There are still a lot more votes to cast before election day, even these preliminary patterns. Just 12.4% of Nevada’s approximately 2 million registered voters have cast their votes, with 11 more days of early voting to go.

According to the most recent FiveThirtyEight polling average, Harris is barely 0.3 percent ahead of Donald Trump, meaning that every vote counts.

Although it is “too soon to call it a trend,” Ralston cautioned that Democrats may face a significant struggle if they are unable to bolster support in Clark County.

“Far from over, too early to call,” Ralston said, before adding, “A few more days like this, though, and the Democratic bedwetting will reach epic proportions.”