Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris in national polls average
US ELECTION: For the first time since August, the average of national polls from aggregator RealClearPolling shows Republican contender Donald Trump behind Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris by a slim margin.
Trump was only 0.1 points ahead of Harris with 48.5 percent as of early Monday, while Harris had 48.4 percent.
The popular vote is measured by polls. Depending on the number of delegates each state has in the Senate and House of Representatives, a candidate may win this yet lose the election if they do not get 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes. FiveThirtyEight’s Electoral College election result simulations show that, as of Monday morning, Trump would win the electoral college 54 times out of 100, while Harris would win 45 times out of 100.
This small margin contrasts with Trump’s standing against then-rival President Joe Biden in the 2020 election. Biden had a commanding 7.5-point lead at that time in the campaign. According to RealClearPolling’s average at the time, Biden had 51.1 percent of the vote, while Trump had 43.6.
Although Trump would win that election, Hillary Clinton, the Democratic candidate at the time, was ahead of him by 4.6 points in 2016 with 47.1 percent of the vote to 42.5 percent.
“President Trump is outworking Kamala Harris, and voters know America can no longer survive under Kamala’s destructive policies of soaring inflation, an out-of-control border, and rampant crime terrorizing every community,” the spokesperson for Trump stated.
However, Harris is just slightly ahead, according to other significant national polling aggregators.
As of early Monday, the national average from FiveThirtyEight showed Trump at 46.7 percent and Harris at 48.1 percent, while the Silver Bulletin blog, run by statistician Nate Silver, had Trump at 47.4 percent and Harris at 48.6 percent.
Trump is now favored on odds aggregates.
As of Monday morning, the Republican has a 61.1 percent probability of winning, while Harris has a 37.7 percent chance.
Regarding the crucial swing states, Harris now has a modest advantage in Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump leads in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona.
Last week, Trump overtook Harris in Pennsylvania, the first time the Republican has won in the Keystone State since July.
Before Biden dropped out of the race in July, Trump was ahead of him in the state. Since then, Democratic presidential candidate Harris had been only a hair ahead of Trump, but last Monday, Trump was 0.3 points ahead of Harris according to FiveThirtyEight’s national average.
