Democrats target seats in Florida and Texas

According to reports, Democratic leaders are preparing offensives in Florida and Texas in an attempt to maintain their razor-thin Senate control come November.

Spending by Democrats has been concentrated on protecting eight Democratic-held districts that are seen to be the most contested. If they keep all eight, the Senate will probably be evenly divided, with Democrats holding the majority in the event that Vice President Kamala Harris wins the presidency.

However, Axios reports that Democratic leaders want to gain seats in Florida and Texas and are worried about keeping Sen. Jon Tester’s seat in Montana, where polls show him behind his Republican opponent.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s head, Senator Gary Peters, told Axios on Tuesday that Florida and Texas “are real and we hope to get resources into those states.” Peters has been emailed for more comments.

According to state polls, Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Florida Senator Rick Scott’s advantages are being eroded by Democratic opponents, raising the possibility that they may be vulnerable.

The biggest consistently red state in the union, Texas has sent Republicans to the Senate in each of the last nine elections since 1990. However, Cruz defeated Democrat Beto O’Rourke by fewer than 3 percentage points in the 2018 elections, giving Democrats optimism that they could be able to win Cruz’s seat.

The gap between the incumbent Republican and his Democratic opponent, Representative Colin Allred, is closing, according to recent surveys, one of which has Allred ahead of Cruz for the first time.

Allred was leading by one percentage point, 45 percent to 44 percent, in a Morning Consult survey of 2,716 potential voters conducted between September 9 and September 18. However, the advantage was within the poll’s margin of error.

Cruz is leading Allred by a slim margin, according to other recent polls. The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation polled 1,200 likely voters between September 13 and September 18, and Cruz was up by three percentage points, or 48% to 45%. And in a different Morning Consult poll, which was administered to 2,940 prospective voters between August 30 and September 8, Cruz led Allred by five points, 47 percent to 42 percent.

“There is a tie in the Texas Senate contest. According to Brett Loyd, president and CEO of polling firm The Bullfinch Group, the media report last week should have always considered it a tossup. “That is not to say Cruz will lose, but the race should be looked at as anyone’s game.”

What the Polls Say About the Race in Florida

Florida, which was once one of the most significant battleground states in the country, has moved significantly to the right in recent years. Sen. Rick Scott, a Republican, did, however, win his seat in 2018 by a mere 10,000 votes.

Earlier in the year, Scott held a commanding lead in the race, but according to current surveys, former Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is closing the gap with him.

In a survey conducted between September 20 and 21, among 600 registered voters, The Bullfinch Group gave Scott a two-point lead (46 to 44 percent).

Between August 21 and September 22, 400 likely voters participated in an ActiVote poll, and Scott led by eight points, or 54 percent to 48 percent.

Scott led by four points in two further September surveys. In a Redfield & Wilton Strategies survey conducted among 1,602 likely voters between September 16 and 19, Scott received 45% of the vote to Mucarsel-Powell’s 41%, while 2,948 likely voters in a Morning Consult survey conducted between September 9 and 18 gave Scott 46% of the vote and Mucarsel-Powell 42%.

According to J. Edwin Benton, a political science and public administration professor at the University of South Florida, “it could be a very competitive race,” as media reports reported last week.

“Mucarsel-Powell has a chance, in my opinion. I wouldn’t have said she had a chance if we had this discussion eight or nine months ago.”