According to Silver, Donald Trump’s chances of winning are increasing before the first debate between the candidates
US Elections: According to pollster Nate Silver, Donald Trump’s odds of winning the November election are becoming better before the candidates’ first debate.
According to Silver’s prediction from last week, Trump has the best likelihood of winning since the end of July, with a 60.1 percent chance of taking the Electoral College. In contrast, Vice President Kamala Harris’s chances were 39.7 percent.
The prediction indicates that since then, Trump’s odds of winning have grown, giving him a 64.4 percent probability to win the Electoral College as opposed to Harris’ 35.3 percent. It also shows that, while Harris is predicted to get 256 electoral votes to Trump’s 282, her chances of winning the popular vote have dropped from 58 to 56 percent.
In the meantime, the model reveals that the Republicans have gained ground in each swing state over the last week, ranging from 0.3 to 1.2 points, and the former president is now expected to win each of the seven battleground states. The algorithm predicted that Harris and Trump would be deadlocked in Wisconsin and Michigan last week.
The first debate between the two candidates is scheduled to begin tonight at 9 p.m. ET in Philadelphia. The forecast is released ahead of time.
Since Biden and Trump’s first debate ended with the 81-year-old president abandoning his reelection campaign, political scientists and observers have said that Harris’s performance in the debate might “make or break” her candidacy. Harris has dominated the race in the polls since entering the race.
According to Thomas Holyoke, a political science professor at Fresno State, “this is kind of a make-or-break moment for both candidates,” per KSEE. “Harris really needs to present herself well and Trump needs to try to stop her from presenting herself well.”
Despite Harris’s impressive performance in the polls, the former president led Harris by one point among likely voters before the debate in a recent nationwide survey released on September 3–6, which was carried out by the New York Times and Siena College.
The New York Times conjectured that this may signal the end of Harris’ honeymoon phase and a “euphoric August” for the vice president. It is the first significant survey to reveal a decline in favor of Harris.
“The honeymoon is officially over,” Politico was informed by Trump’s spokeswoman Jason Miller after the release of the survey.
Analysts have cautioned that it is too soon to determine if Harris’ advantage has been surpassed and that the latest poll is now an anomaly.
Harris is still leading Trump nationwide, according to FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker, with 47.2 points to 44.4 points. The polling company’s estimate indicates that Harris will get 277 Electoral College votes to Trump’s 261. This is a decrease from August 28, when the prediction put Harris ahead of Trump by 291 votes.
According to RealClearPolitics’ prediction, Trump will win the Electoral College after toss-up states are eliminated, with the vice president receiving 257 votes to Trump’s 281, even though Harris is ahead based on polling averages.
After eliminating tossup states, RealClearPolitics ranked Harris ahead in the Electoral College last week.
According to both pollsters, Trump is expected to win in Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia, while Harris is expected to win in three swing states: Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nevada.
The only swing state where the two pollsters disagree is Pennsylvania, where RealClearPolitics predicts Trump will win while the most recent FiveThirtyEight prediction has the two candidates drawing a tie.
