Senator Gary Peters: My party is “investing several million dollars” in TV advertising to win Senate races in Texas and Florida

Chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), Senator Gary Peters claimed his party was using “multimillion-dollar TV advertising in a bid to win Senate races in Texas and Florida.” At a National Press Club event on September 26

Though he didn’t say exactly how much will be spent in the two historically Republican-leaning states, Peters noted that he is “very confident there’s going to be more [money] coming.”

With 51 senators affiliated with the party against 49 with the Republicans, the Democrats now hold a wafer-thin Senate majority.

But since Joe Manchin of West Virginia, an independent caucusing with the Democrats who created a cross-party appeal isn’t seeking for reelection in what is usually a red state, so they are largely projected to lose one senator in November. Republicans also want to replace Democratic Senator Jon Tester in Montana, a state Donald Trump won by more than 16 percent points in 2020.

Democrats are working hard to offset by trying to remove Republican senators Rick Scott in Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas. Cruz, who barely prevailed by less than 3 percent in 2018, is seen to be especially susceptible to a challenge from current House Democrat Colin Allred.

Based on a recent Morning Consult survey of 2,716 potential Texan voters taken between September 9 and 18, polling Cruz and Allred engaged in a close battle with the Democrat marginally ahead with 45 percent versus 44 for the Republican incumbent.

Conducted on September 25–26, a Public Policy Polling study of 759 registered Texan voters found Cruz ahead of Allred with 47 percent against 46.

As of June 30, more than in any other single Senate campaign—some $97,440,144 had been raised in the Texas Senate contest, according research by Open Secrets, a nonprofit tracking the influence of money on American politics. Thirdly most nationwide on Senate campaign expenditure, the study also discovered $79,424,485 had been spent on the Texas Senate election. This covers $27,403,500 Allred deployed and $45,224,414 Cruz documented as spent.

Reached for comments on the higher TV ad expenditure, Allred’s staff sent Newsweek a reference to a campaign manager statement from Paige Hutchinson.

“Ted Cruz is weaker and more vulnerable than ever because of his failure to secure the border, his extreme abortion ban that has put women in danger, his attempts to cut Social Security and Medicare and his record of only looking out for himself,” she added. Colin Allred is going to defeat Ted Cruz on November 5 and provide Texas with the leadership it is due.

Although Cruz has raised more than Allred, he has also been in the race longer as sitting senators essentially begin campaigning for reelection right upon their swearing-in.

Allred entered the campaign in May 2023, hence his funding behind Cruz’s head start. But outranking Cruz each quarter since running, Allred’s campaign has attracted significant Democratic contributions to the contest.
A Rational Action

Speaking with Newsweek, Joshua Blank, director of research for the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas in Austin, said that funding their attempts to overthrow Cruz makes sense from the Democrats.
“With Trump and Cruz leading the ticket, Texas Republicans are depending on two candidates who won their previous elections here by 5.58 and 2.58 points respectively. Elections in Texas have been getting closer and closer,” he added.

“If Texas is essentially just plus-3 to plus-5 points Republican, it may very well be one of the state’s that Democrats should be investing money in. Texas’ size just so happens that it takes many millions of dollars to make even a nominal effect.”

American politics specialist Dafydd Townley, who teaches at the University of Portsmouth in the United Kingdom, said Newsweek Democrats had a reasonable opportunity to win their first Texas Senate seat since 1988.

“The Cruz/Allred race for the Senate has given Democrats hope that they can achieve success in a state that has been dominated by the Republican Party in recent history,” he added.With ongoing Republican successes, the expectation that Texas might be a “purple” state—and hence important for both congressional majorities and the presidential contest—has faded over decades. But the margin of those wins has been declining, hence this Senate race really does look to be a true battle.”

Townley went on

“Cruz has been named as a target vulnerable to retain his Senate seat. In his campaign on abortion and his travel to Cancun during a winter storm in 2021, he has been always on the defense.Cruz came under fire after taking a family vacation to Cancun, Mexico, in early 2021 in the middle of a winter storm which left millions of Texans without power.

The Cook Report changed its assessment of Texas from likely Republican to leaning Republican, a minor but significant change that will give Democrats hope of a first senatorsial victory in the state since 1988. Later, the Texas senator told local network KTRK-TV he “was trying to be a dad,” adding: “It was obviously a mistake and in hindsight I wouldn’t have done it.”

“Bullish” Democratic politicians

In a move to increase Allred’s prospects, the powerful Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan analysis of American elections, moved the Texas Senate seat from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” on Tuesday.

Teaching American politics at the University of Surrey in the United Kingdom, Mark Shanahan told Newsweek that Democrats are probably concentrating on Texas and Florida in hope they would lose Senate seats elsewhere.

“The Democrats are bullish that they can hold on to the White House and flip the House of Representatives, but the Achilles’ heel in their plan for government is that they’re currently on track to lose the Senate,” he added.

Manchin’s seat in West Virginia will be lost; Jon Tester, clinging on in Montana, seems to be a hopeless prospect; Sherrod Brown is still involved in a too-tight contest in Ohio. The GOP so searches for flipable Senate seats and has found Ted Cruz in Texas and Rick Scott in Florida.Many see Cruz as yesterday’s guy.

He’s polling far below Trump throughout the state and his opponent, former NFL football player-turned-civil rights attorney Colin Allred is the type of youthful, telegenic candidate most likely to appeal to independents and the paler red among Republicans and is therefore worth major DSCC funding.”

Peters stressed during his National Press Club visit that the Democratic focus on Texas and Florida won’t sacrifice supporting Senator Tester in Montana.

“There is no world you could conceive of that I am not going to be in the Montana race to the very end,” he stated. Jon Tester will be equipped with everything required for success.”

But according to Philip Letsou, a National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman, Peters’s remarks were “effectively an admission from Chuck Schumer and the DSCC that Jon Tester, who is polling very badly, looks like a lost cause”.

He also said: ” Voters will reject Allred and [former Florida Representative Debbie] Mucarsel-Powell; they are bad fits for Florida and Texas.”