What President Joe Biden’s party is doing to protect its narrow 51-49 seat majority
This year, the fight for Senate control has been focused on Democratic-held seats as President Joe Biden’s party tries to hold onto its slim 51-49 seat advantage. According to polls, the Republicans are expected to take back control of the Senate, and Decision Desk HQ projects that they will have a 70% probability of succeeding.
Still, this year’s Senate contests are very tight. Democrats would only need to regain one or more open seats in Arizona, Michigan, and Maryland to maintain control of the Senate if they were to win the president and all of their incumbent senators were to reclaim their seats.
In the event that Donald Trump is elected president and the Republicans secure the seat of West Virginia, where Senator Joe Manchin is retiring, they will have everything they need to seize control of the Senate.
Michigan
After Debbie Stabenow retired in 2001, the position is now vacant.
According to polls, Slotkin is leading the race. She was 5 points ahead of Rogers in a survey released this month by Emerson College and The Hill, 47 percent to 42 percent. Another Morning Consult survey recently put Slotkin 14 points ahead of her Republican opponent.
Based on the RealClearPolitics poll tracker, Slotkin is leading Rogers by an average of 5.1 points.
Despite Slotkin’s advantage, Rogers has the financial support of national Republicans and the endorsement of the former president Trump, which may improve his chances in November.
The fight for the seat is a toss-up, according to the unbiased Cook Political Report.
In August, former Michigan Republican Representative Fred Upton warned the Associated Press that “this race is going to go down to the wire.” “This will be a terrific match between two heavyweights. They are well familiar with the problems and will tackle them head-on.”
Arizona
Representative Ruben Gallego, a Democrat, is running against former news reporter Kari Lake in Arizona for the open Senate seat left by incumbent Kyrsten Sinema’s departure from the Democratic Party in December 2023.
According to polls, Gallego, the House representative for Arizona’s 3rd Congressional District, is leading Lake, who gained national attention as a leader of the MAGA movement spearheaded by former President Donald Trump during his 2021 bid for Arizona governorship.
Although Gallego has been leading Lake by double digits in some polls, such as the most recent Morning Consult poll, which showed Gallego ahead by 14 points, other recent polls have shown the Democrat leading Lake by much less, ranging from 1 to 8 points, including the most recent Emerson College poll, which showed him ahead by 6 points.
Polls that show Gallego leading by double digits have been disregarded by Lake. “Fifteen points separate no winner. I don’t trust these surveys at all,” she said to KTAR.
According to The Cook Report, the race is leaning Democratic.
Gallego leads by 4.3 points, according to RealClearPolitics’ polling tracker.
Arizona voters have elected Democrats to represent them in the Senate since 2018. Prior to then, most voters supported Republicans.
Maryland
The party’s hopes of keeping control of the Senate hinge on Maryland, a solidly Democratic state.
However, according to a recent August 20 American Association of Retired Persons survey, Larry Hogan and Angela Alsobrooks were deadlocked at 46% of the vote each.
The moderate Republican Hogan, a former governor of Maryland, has made an effort to put Trump’s comments behind him. As one of the few Republicans who has never “caved” to Trump, he has made a point of highlighting his decision to send the Maryland National Guard to stop the assault on the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021.
Therefore, a state that Trump lost to Joe Biden by 33 points in 2020 is in a toss-up situation, according to the Cook Report.
However, other surveys had Alsobrooks up by double digits. One such poll was taken between September 16 and 17 by Public Policy Polling, and it indicated that she was 17 points ahead.
In the most recent Morning Consult survey, Alsobrooks was up by 12 points.
Alsobrooks leads by 6.8 points, according to RealClearPolitics’ polling tracker.
Ohio
Senator Sherrod Brown is up against Republican contender Bernie Moreno in Ohio.
The Ohio GOP establishment did not support Moreno. Instead, Trump nominated him for the position.
According to polls, Brown is just ahead of Moreno in the firmly Republican state.
Brown led Moreno by only 2 points, 46 percent to 44 percent, according to the most recent Morning Consult survey. Brown was ahead of the last Morning Consult survey by three points.
Brown was just one point ahead of the other survey, which was conducted between September 3 and 5 by Emerson College and The Hill.
But according to certain polls, Moreno is leading. For instance, an Emerson College survey from March indicated that the Republican was leading by one point.
Brown leads by 3.6 points, according to RealClearPolitics’ polling tracker. The Ohio Senate race is a toss-up, according to the Cook Political Report.
In the past, Ohio voters have alternated between picking Republicans and Democrats to represent them in the Senate. Republicans have been chosen in the previous three Senate contests.
Pennsylvania
In Pennsylvania, former Bridgewater Associates CEO and three-term incumbent Democratic senator Bob Casey faces off against David McCormick, the head of one of the biggest hedge funds in the world. According to surveys, Casey is up to nine points ahead and is expected to keep his seat.
He is leading, but not by much, according to recent surveys; the most current Emerson College survey showed him up 4 percent.
Meanwhile, he was tied with McCormick in a head-to-head survey done by The Washington Post between September 12 and September 16. The two candidates were deadlocked in another CNN survey from August.
McCormick had already lost a Senate contest in Pennsylvania, losing to Mehmet Oz in the Republican primary of 2022 by a narrow margin. In the general election to replace retiring GOP Senator Pat Toomey, Dr. Oz lost to Democrat John Fetterman. Fetterman was one of the seven Republican senators who voted in favor of convicting Trump during his second impeachment hearing after the Capitol incident.
According to The Cook Report, the seat is leaning Democratic.
In the state that has typically elected Republicans to the Senate, Casey is up by 4.5 points, according to RealClearPolitics’ polling tracker.
The Democratic incumbent senator from Nevada, Jacky Rosen, is up against veteran of the protracted American-led military campaign in Afghanistan and West Point alumnus Sam Brown. Brown was severely injured when he barely avoided a roadside bombing in Kandahar.
According to polls, Rosen is well ahead of Brown. She was leading by 7 points, 48 percent to 41 percent, according to the most recent Emerson College survey.
Rosen was leading Morning Consult by 13 points, while the RealClearPolitics tracker had Rosen leading her opponent by 8.8 points.
Wisconsin
Enormous Republican banker and businessman Eric Hovde is running against two-term Wisconsin senator Tammy Baldwin. Hovde raises money for his own campaigns.
Despite the expectation that the Democrats would win the state, surveys indicate that Baldwin is ahead by a very slim margin.
For instance, Baldwin was ahead by only three points according to the most recent Emerson College survey. In a survey conducted by Emerson College at the end of August, she was leading the state by barely one point.
But according to RealClearPolitics’ polling tracker, Baldwin is leading by 4.7 points, and she has topped every survey.
Although Democrats have often been selected to serve in the state Senate, Republicans have been picked in five of the previous seven elections. According to the Cook Report, there is a Democratic tilt in the contest.
Baldwin defeated Republican Leah Vukmir in the 2018 election, receiving 55.4 percent of the vote to Vukmir’s 44.6 percent. In Wisconsin in November, the average margin of victory for statewide races was 4.9 percent, making this the largest margin of victory in any statewide campaign.
In Montana’s Senate contest, Democratic Senator Jon Tester is up against Trump-backed businessman and former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy.
Who is leading has varied according to polls. The majority, including the most recent AARP survey, which was completed between August 25 and 26, gave Sheehy a 6-point advantage.
In the meantime, he led by seven points in a Republican-funded survey done by Public Opinion Strategies between August 18 and August 20.
Nevertheless, Tester has been leading or tied with the two candidates in previous surveys. Tester was leading by five points in an RMG Research survey from August 6 to 14, but the candidates were tied in a Public Opinion Strategies survey from June 11 to 13.
In a June survey conducted by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, Tester and Sheehy were tied.
The Cook Report declares the race to be undecided. In the past, Montana has alternated between electing Republicans and Democrats to the Senate. Sheehy leads by 5.2 points, according to the polling tracker maintained by RealClearPolitics.
Texas President Throughout the election campaign, Texas Senator Ted Cruz has maintained a lead over his rival, Colin Allred.
Nonetheless, among 2,716 potential voters, Allred led Cruz by 1 point according to the most recent state survey, which was carried out by Morning Consult. His advantage was within the +/-2 percentage point margin of error for the survey.
The Cook Political Report continues to label the Texas Senate race as a probable Republican seat, despite Allred’s slight advantage.
In the last Morning Consult survey of 2,940 likely voters, Cruz led Allred by 5 points, with 47 percent to 42 percent. The survey was carried out from August 30 to September 8.
In the meantime, Cruz led 1,200 registered voters by 8 points, according to a survey conducted between August 23 and August 31 by YouGov and the University of Texas.
Cruz was 10 points ahead in another ActiVote survey, which was conducted among 400 potential voters between August 13 and August 29. Cruz seems to have a smaller lead—between two and four points—according to other polls.
Cruz leads on average by six points, according to RealClearPolitics’ polling tracker.
Since 1990, Texas has chosen a Republican to represent them in the Senate.
In 2018, Cruz almost prevailed against Beto O’Rourke with 214,921 votes cast out of a total of over 8.3 million.
Still, a number of Republicans express concern about how close the polls have been in this contest.
“What on earth is wrong with Texas’s Senate race? Chris LaCivita, the campaign manager for Donald Trump, posted on X, previously Twitter, last week with the caption, “I think I know… and I think I know his name… time to get some real professionals in to save @tedcruz.”
Florida
Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is running against Republican incumbent Rick Scott in the state of Florida.
Throughout the election season, Scott has been ahead in every poll. But Scott is just 3 and 4 points up in the last two surveys from Morning Consult, Redfield, and Wilton Strategies.
But with Florida’s previous electoral history favoring Republicans, a significant decline in Trump’s popularity would probably be necessary to make the seat competitive.
According to the Cook Political Report, Florida’s Senate seat is expected to go to the Republicans.
