Republican pollster predicts Donald Trump’s defeat after ‘disgusting’ debate performance
According to Republican pollster Frank Luntz, after the former president’s “contemptuous” debate performance, Donald Trump will not win the election. During their first—and maybe only—debate on Tuesday night in Philadelphia, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were subjected to four fact checks for the former president’s repeated fabrications about the rigged 2020 election and her promotion of a hoax about migrant children in Ohio kidnapping and devouring pets.
After the debate, both candidates claimed their victories, although a Republican pollster said the outcome was obvious.
Pollster Frank Luntz was asked, “Do you think Kamala won, and does that mean she may now win the election?” on Piers Morgan Uncensored on Wednesday.
“I believe that Donald Trump was not victorious,” Luntz said. “And although it’s not the worst debate performance I’ve ever seen in my professional life, it’s pretty damn close. The discussions about people consuming dogs and cats, referring to Hungary’s leader as one of the greatest world leaders, constantly ignoring the chance to discuss inflation and affordability, and his total incapacity to voice his opinions without taking aim at her, Joe Biden, or anyone else he was targeting.”
“It was a pretty negative performance—pretty pessimistic, cynical, contemptuous,” Luntz continued. “Yes, I believe that he will pay a price for this.
In the past, Luntz has been critical of Trump. He responded to the former president’s Truth Social post on Sunday by writing, “I have never seen a candidate more determined to blow an election.”
With 20 top bookies, Harris’ odds of winning the November presidential election increased after the discussion. But other analysts have cautioned that Trump could be underperforming in the polls, just as he did in 2016 and 2020. According to a September The Economist/YouGov survey of 1,626 American adults, he has narrowed the deficit on Harris for the first time in more than a month.
According to a quick CNN survey conducted on Tuesday night, 63 percent of viewers said Harris had won the debate, while 37 percent believed Trump had.
The same voters were equally divided before the event about who would do better: 50% predicted that Harris would, and 50% believed Trump would.
According to CNN, the survey represents a change from June, when viewers of Trump and Biden’s debate reported that Trump did better than his Democratic opponent, 67 percent to 33 percent. Concerns about his advanced age and cognitive capacity ultimately caused Biden to abandon his reelection candidacy in the wake of the discussion.
The only Republicans to win the CNN poll since 2000 are Trump and Mitt Romney, the Republican contender for president in 2012.
Winning the CNN post-debate survey, according to pollster Nate Silver, “typically does translate into gains in post-debate polls.” In the debate, Harris’s performance, he said, “reduced the chances” that Trump would win the presidency once again.
How much the discussion affects the polls and the November election is still up in the air.
Silver projects that Trump will have a 61 percent probability of winning the Electoral College, while Harris’s chances are just 38 percent.
Nevertheless, some pollsters, including FiveThirtyEight, believe Harris will earn 279 electoral votes and win the election.
According to Silver’s prediction, Harris has a 58 percent probability of winning the popular vote even if she could lose the Electoral College.
