Carey Lake underperforms again in Arizona
After losing the Arizona Senate contest to Democrat Ruben Gallego, Lake is now likely the greatest Republican underperformer of the 2024 election.
The Associated Press announced Lake, an election skeptic and ardent Trump supporter, as the winner on Tuesday. Gallego was ahead of Lake in Arizona by more than two points (50.1 percent to 47.7), with 98 percent of the vote recorded.
As the president-elect won all seven major battleground states in the election, Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona by over 6 points (52.2 to 46.7). According to the data, Lake and Trump had the biggest difference of any Republican in a close Senate contest in Arizona—nearly 8 points. In Arizona, Trump received 1.746 million votes as of Thursday, compared to 1.574 million for Lake.
Lake’s performance indicated that there was a problem with either her as a candidate or her election approach, according to David Schultz, a professor of political science and legal studies at Hamline University in Minnesota, who spoke to media reports.
“In an election where Republicans appeared to win almost every close race, Lake stands out as doing worse here in Arizona than in 2022,” he said.
“Trump should have assisted her instead of hurting her this time. Lake was not saved by Trump’s coattails, which implied something about her platform, approach, or character as a candidate,” Schultz said.
Mark Robinson, the Republican candidate for governor of North Carolina, was the only other Republican to have a more significant electoral failure. But since his candidacy was plagued by accusations of antisemitism and rumors that he referred to himself as a “Black Nazi” on the bulletin board of a pornographic website over ten years ago, the GOP had long given up on him as a contender. In a state that Trump won by 4 points, he ultimately lost the election by 14 points.
Despite losing their tight races against Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin and Elissa Slotkin in Michigan, respectively, Republican Senate candidates Eric Hovde and Mike Rogers both fell by less than one point. These two crucial states were won by Trump by less than a single point.
The more popular Democratic candidate, Jacky Rosen, defeated Republican Sam Brown in the fiercely contested Nevada Senate election (46.3 percent to 47.9), but the difference was just 5 points, while Trump defeated Harris (50.6 percent to 47.5).
But Lake had a real chance to win, and Arizona was a crucial opportunity for the GOP. AtlasIntel, the election’s most reliable pollster, had the two candidates deadlocked in their last poll, which was conducted during the two days before to the election, despite the fact that surveys often indicated Gallego was the small favorite to defeat Lake.
Lake had a protracted and well-publicized battle with Meghan McCain, the daughter of the late Arizona Senator John McCain, and failed to win over the moderate Republicans necessary for victory in Arizona. The Arizona Republican Party may have hurt Lake’s prospects of winning the race by funding pro-Trump billboards in September that touted “team unity,” excluding her. Rather, the former president was seen with Tulsi Gabbard, Vivek Ramaswamy, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Elon Musk, and JD Vance.
The First Latino in the Senate
In the end, Gallego’s win in Arizona won’t have a big effect on who controls the upper house the next year. In this year’s election, the Senate had already been flipped by the Republican Party, with the final vote going 53-47 in the GOP’s favor.
As the first Latino elected to the U.S. Senate from Arizona, Gallego did, however, create history.
“Gracias, Arizona,” Gallego said on X, the old name for Twitter, when his election victory was confirmed.
