Trump likely to win in New Jersey
According to Donald Trump, he is “making a move for New Jersey,” a state that last supported a Republican in 1988 and that he lost by more than 10 points in both 2016 and 2020.
The Republican presidential candidate overstated the size of his crowds at three campaign events, speaking at one on Tuesday in Greensboro, North Carolina.
“The population of Butler was 101,000. “Consider that,” Trump said to the audience. “The population of New Jersey was 107,000. We’re also going after New Jersey. Additionally, there were 109,000 individuals in California two weeks ago.
Trump trailed Joe Biden by at least 15 percent and lost New Jersey by over 700,000 votes in 2020. Trump trailed Hillary Clinton by up to 14 percent and lost New Jersey by over 500,000 votes in 2016.
Between September 4 and October 2, ActiVote conducted the state’s sole presidential survey since Harris emerged as the Democratic nominee. Of the 400 likely voters polled, 44% favored Trump and 56% favored Harris, giving the vice president a 12-point advantage.
Trump has a 5% chance of winning New Jersey, whereas Harris has a 95% probability, according to online election betting odds site Polymarket.
Three inaccurate and exaggerated estimates of the number of people attending Trump rallies were released with his remark. He often inflates attendance counts and claims that his figures demonstrate the broad support in the community.
Trump has said repeatedly that 107,000 people attended his event in Wildwood, New Jersey, although there is no proof to back up this claim. According to Fox News commentator Jesse Watters and the mayor of Wildwood, between 30,000 and 40,000 people showed there, according to a Newsweek study.
Trump’s assertion that 101,000 people showed up for his second rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, when he revisited the location of his assassination attempt, is unsupported by any evidence. The audience was “almost certainly less than 57,000” and perhaps closer to 30,000, according to a Newsweek investigation.
Trump has made the claim that 109,000 people attended his event at Coachella, California, but there is no proof to back it up. According to the Riverside County Fire Marshall, up to 15,000 people may fit in the space.
The Garden State has a history with Trump. He controlled three casinos in Atlantic City, New Jersey, from 1984 until 2009, but they all went bankrupt many times, losing him $700 million.
He also said earlier this month that he will “make a play for New York,” another state in which he is now more than ten points behind Harris in the polls. Later this week, he is scheduled to hold a rally at Madison Square Garden.
