Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump nationally in the 2024 elections
US Elections: While the crucial swing states remain too close to call, Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump in the national 2024 polls with three weeks till election day.
In the last few weeks of the campaign, Vice President Harris and former President Trump are still in a dead heat, with Trump gradually eroding Harris’s advantage in aggregate polls.
With neither candidate outperforming the other by more than two points in any aggregator’s average, Harris and Trump continue to be almost deadlocked in the seven battleground states that might decide who wins the 2024 election.
Barring any unexpected outcomes elsewhere, Harris’s best chance of winning in November would be to win the three blue-wall battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Winning the Sun Belt swing states of Georgia and North Carolina as well as flipping Pennsylvania would be Trump’s most effective route to 270 Electoral College votes.
Countrywide Means
Survey aggregator and forecaster 538 reports that Harris leads Trump by 2.4 points (48.5 percent to 46.1) in the country right now.
From the 2.6-point national advantage Harris had over Trump on October 8, this is a 0.2-point drop.
In his most recent update, pollster Nate Silver—who developed 538 and now employs a similar projection model—gives Harris a bigger lead over Trump in the national average survey, 2.8 points (49.3 percent to 46.5 percent). Additionally, according to Silver’s estimate, Trump’s ratings had increased by 0.2 points from the previous week.
RealClearPolitics’ national average, which favors Republican polling organizations, has Harris up by 1.7 points (48.9 percent to 47.2 percent).
Harris was leading Trump by two points according to the average poll findings from RealClearPolitics on October 8.
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill’s projection model presently projects Harris will win 51 percent of the vote overall, characterizing the contest as unusually tight.
States in Swing
Harris is presently leading in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada by 0.6, 0.7, and 0.8 points, respectively, according to 538. In the last three battleground states of Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina, Trump leads by 0.9, 1.8, and 1 point, respectively.
Unless there are unexpected outcomes elsewhere, 538 projects Harris will win the race with 276 Electoral College votes.
In addition, Harris leads Silver by 0.8 points in Nevada and 1.1 points, respectively, in the three blue-wall states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
In North Carolina (plus 0.7 points), Georgia (plus 0.8 points), and Arizona (plus 0.6 points), according to Silver, Trump is ahead of Harris on average.
Swing state polling from RealClearPolitics is different. It shows that in six of the seven key battleground states, Trump is only ahead of Harris.
Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, Trump leads by two, three, and five points, respectively.
In the averages of RealClearPolitics, Wisconsin is the only state where Harris defeats Trump by 0.3 points. In this case, Trump would defeat Harris by 302 votes to 236 in the Electoral College.
Current Surveys
In a nationwide poll conducted by CBS News and YouGov among 2,719 registered voters, Harris leads Trump by 3 points (51 percent to 48).
When examining just the battleground states, Harris’s advantage shrinks to 1 point overall (50 percent to 49).
The poll was completed between October 8 and October 11, and there is a 2.3 percentage point margin of error in the findings.
In a survey of 1,714 potential voters conducted by ABC News and Ipsos between October 4 and 8, Harris received 50% of the vote against Trump’s 48%. A margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points surrounds the findings.
In other news, an Ativote survey of 1,000 probable voters showed that Trump was ahead of Harris by one point (50 to 49). The poll has a 3.1 percentage point margin of error and was conducted from October 3–8.
