Donald Trump is at greater risk of being ruined because of what he did in North Carolina

Donald Trump runs the danger of his actions in North Carolina becoming his undoing. A bombshell media report story exposing a porn-site controversy involving Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson on Thursday threw even more chaos into an already intensely contested presidential election in the crucial swing state.

According to the media report’s KFile, Lt. Gov. Robinson, whose views and demeanor are extreme even by the standards of Trump’s MAGA movement, called himself a “black NAZI!” and supported the reinstatement of slavery on a message board on a pornographic website over ten years ago. There were a lot of gratuitously sexual and obscene comments.

Robinson said that the remarks that came before his political career were not his own. However, the White House campaign was rocked by his closeness to Trump, who called him “Martin Luther King on steroids” and featured him on stage at a recent event.

The campaign of Vice President Kamala Harris quickly emphasized the scandal’s national ramifications and attempted to compare Trump to Robinson, claiming that the former president is radical, immoral, anti-women, and unsuitable to hold office. For example, the campaign shared images of the two men together on social media along with Trump’s recognizable thumbs-up emoji.

It is difficult to say if Robinson’s political misfortune would materially harm Trump’s prospects in one of the most crucial and fiercely contested battleground states. It doesn’t necessarily follow that Trump supporters who despise Robinson will not support the former president since they are fiercely devoted to their leader. Moreover, Democrats have often believed that North Carolina was ready to flip in the most recent elections, only for the state to obstinately remain red. Even yet, a decline in Republican attendance might have a big impact in this close contest. And the ramifications are enormous: should Harris lose any of the Blue Wall states—Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Michigan—North Carolina may provide her with a backup path to the White House.

And if Trump ends up hurting a Republican who would have been hated by the establishment GOP but flourished in the smash-mouth political climate that the former president fostered, that would be an odd historical postscript.

An inside look at the Trump GOP and a closely contested election

With regard to the Republican Party’s identity in the Trump age, the unusual closeness of the fight to 270 Electoral Votes, and the potential implications for November’s winner for America’s future, the recent turmoil in North Carolina offers a multifaceted lesson.

Robinson is the most recent in a long line of bizarre and often weak candidates who gained popularity because they pleased Trump. Some honored Trump by adopting his outlandish ways or by believing his deceptive allegations of election fraud. Numerous influential Republicans accuse these supporters of the base of giving Democrats the upper hand in recent House, Senate, and gubernatorial contests.

In the race for governor, Robinson was already far behind Democratic nominee and Attorney General of North Carolina Josh Stein. However, his new issues propelled North Carolina even higher in the presidential contest. David Plouffe, senior advisor to Harris, put it succinctly on X: “16 key electoral votes.”

Democrats have been putting a lot of effort into winning North Carolina since Plouffe’s former boss, Barack Obama, did it in 2008. The Democratic Party may never have a better opportunity to win because there is currently a Democrat in the governor’s house and their nominee is well-positioned to succeed him.

Trump’s prior backing for Robinson goes beyond a mere appreciation for a political wrecker with similar views, whose crude speech and mannerisms about women, gays, and transgender Americans were well-known to the electorate that chose him to be their lieutenant governor. In his attempt to weaken the Democratic alliance, the former president has made some headway with Black male voters, and his prior backing of Robinson will be seen through that lens.

A fresh turn in an intense race

The outcry over Robinson was just the most recent shocking development in one of the most unpredictable presidential campaigns in memory. Only a few months prior to the election, Joe Biden, the incumbent president, abandoned his bid for reelection following a dismal debate performance and two apparent attempts to assassinate Trump.

Trump’s campaign has veered from issue to controversy in just the last week. He has intensified the conspiracy idea that homeowners’ dogs had been eaten by Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, along with his vice presidential nominee. During a Trump rally, Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders made a reference to Harris’s lack of biological children, which brought attention to the campaign’s obvious disregard for its low position among important women voters. And Trump, who seems to be the only one who thinks the state is in play in November, spent valuable time in New York on Wednesday night.

While chaos envelops Trump, Harris has been making her way toward the White House by doing the menial tasks of a conventional campaign. She has made contact with important members of her coalition this week, such as Asian Pacific Americans, Black voters, women voters, and Hispanic voters. In an effort to secure a sizable turnout among White women and Black women voters, she participated in a “Unite For America” rally on Thursday night with Oprah Winfrey. This might potentially offset the ex-president’s significant lead among White male voters.

How Trump may lessen the harm

The Robinson KFile probe presented the Trump campaign with an unexpected issue. The Republican candidate summoned the lieutenant governor on stage during a rally in Asheboro last month, and he just spoke at the former president’s economic address in Asheville, North Carolina. The Trump team finds it hard to shield the former president as a result.

However, their early reaction to the KFile report made it evident that they wanted to disassociate the Republican candidate from the recent incident. The goals of President Trump’s campaign are to save our nation and win the White House. Karoline Leavitt, a campaign spokesperson, said that North Carolina is an essential component of their agenda. We are optimistic that President Trump will win the Tarheel State once again when people contrast his record of a robust economy, low inflation, a safe border, and safe streets with the shortcomings of Biden-Harris. We’re not going to lose sight of the goal.

Leavitt made the implication that the principles of the presidential contest remain unchanged despite Democrats’ attempts to establish a connection between Robinson and Trump and that the former president has such a strong base of support that any negative attention from the MAGA movement would not affect him negatively.

Conservative pundit and media report political analyst Margaret Hoover said that although there would be some consequences for the Republican vote in November, the nature of the Trump alliance meant that the former president was not necessarily going to suffer from the Robinson impact.

Hoover told the media report’s Erin Burnett, “I don’t think we should necessarily think that Donald Trump is toast here because the terrible Republican candidate for governor is on his way to being toasted.” “MAGA fans are MAGA fans no matter who the Republican chooses to run for governor.”

Trump did not request that Robinson withdraw from the race on Thursday. That would be uncharacteristic of an ex-president who, over the last nine years, has resisted practically weekly scandals that would have brought down a traditional politician.

However, the KFile report was released only hours before the state law’s 11:59 p.m. deadline for candidates to remove their names off the ballot, which is Thursday. The first round of absentee votes is scheduled to be sent on Friday. Nonetheless, despite long-standing worries by those close to the former president regarding the lieutenant governor’s previous inflammatory remarks, including over a school shooting and disparaging the civil rights movement, there was no covert attempt by the Trump campaign to oust Robinson, according to media reports’ Alayna Treene and Kristen Holmes.

A gap for Harris

The Harris campaign will use every effort to prevent the Robinson outcry from decreasing.

The two-term Democratic governor of North Carolina, Roy Cooper, expanded the scope of the controversy beyond Robinson and attempted to connect it to Trump. “Mark Robinson was accepted by Donald Trump and NC GOP officials for years despite their knowledge of his background and beliefs, which included violent incitement and disregard for women. “They get what they plant,” Cooper said on social media.

However, it will be hard to determine with certainty Robinson’s influence on the presidential ballot and GOP fervor until the ballots are tallied on election night.

But Democrats find the chances alluring only because of how close the state has been. Romney, the Republican candidate, defeated Obama in 2012 by a margin of almost 2 percentage points. In 2016, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton there by about four points. But in 2020, Biden’s loss was just slightly more than one point.

Election analyst Nate Silver warned media report’s Jake Tapper on Thursday that unexpected happenings in North Carolina might multiply with such margins, especially if polls this time around indicate a close race. “In a state like North Carolina, in particular, it’s mostly a turnout state… Suddenly, that state becomes more interesting if you have someone like Mark Robinson who moves the polls by half a point,” said Silver.

“Generally, there are no reverse coattails, which means that the presidential race can influence lower-level races but not the other way around,” Silver continued. However, he did raise the possibility that aggressive Democratic advertising that connected Robinson to Trump and possibly low Republican turnout could influence the outcome.

Although Harris would have enormously big opportunities if he were to win those 16 electoral votes, Democrats have had similar disappointments in North Carolina in the past.

Many analysts had predicted that the state would follow the path of neighboring Virginia, which turned into a reliable Democratic state in presidential elections due to its booming suburbs and influx of more liberal, highly educated voters drawn by the state’s booming hi-tech and medical tech industries. However, Trump’s arrival in 2016 slowed down Democratic advances in the state.

Should North Carolina turn blue once again this year, it could indicate that Republicans are becoming weary of the chaos and hateful fellow travelers that Trump has allowed. However, if the former president wins the state for the third election in a row, he will once again demonstrate his incredible fortitude, regardless of the mayhem engulfing him.